A research team has said that most likely the United States will have more than 410000 COVID19 related deaths by January 2021. At the same time, around three million people will die across the world due to the pandemic. This forecast has been released by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The agency has announced the forecast based on different factors such as worst-case scenario, best-case scenario, and most likely scenario. IHME has said that in the worst-case scenario, around 620000 people will be dead in the US due to COVID19 if the government aggressively eases out the restrictions. While four million people across the world will perish due to the Pandemic if the world fails to tighten the social distancing norms and other restrictions related to the disease. The virus has already claimed 186800 lives in the United States so far.
In the best-case scenario, around 2 million people will lose their lives across the world by the end of this year. There will be 327775 COVID fatalities in the United States considering the best-case scenario. However, the Director of IHME, Dr. Christopher Murray has warned and said that the worst is yet to strike. Experts are anticipating that the month of December is going to be quite deadly especially in Central Asia, Europe, and the United States. IHME Director has advised that maintaining social distance, wearing masks, and limit to social gatherings are crucial factors to prevent transmission of the virus. He has said that it will depend on the government policies as well that how many people will die due to the virus this fall and winter.
In June, IHME had predicted that the death toll in the US would shoot up to 200000 by October, which turns out to be true. Dr. Murray has said that the transmission of coronavirus is determined by the seasonal elements as well, that is the reason we might see an easy spread of the virus in the colder northern atmosphere. He has been skeptical about the usage of masks and said that widespread use of masks might not be able to stop the spread of the virus in fall and winter. Dr. Murray affirms that the daily numbers of COVID cases might reduce in September it will shoot up again in October. Many epidemiologists have criticized the IHME for releasing a forecast, which is too far into the future.